"The Quest for Peace 2025/2026: Geopolitical Opportunities Between Cooperation and Trade" by Carlo Coppola
La versione italiana di questo articolo di Carlo Coppola si trova su "InCittà Giovinazzo" diretto dal prof. Antonio Calisi al seguente indirizzo:
Geopolitical Opportunities in the South Caucasus Through Cooperation and Trade
The pursuit of international peace in 2025–2026 remains one of the most complex challenges in global geopolitics. The concept of achieving world peace—long considered utopian—has re-emerged in policy debates through the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP). While framed as a global initiative, TRIPP carries strategic geopolitical relevance for unresolved and frozen conflicts, particularly in the South Caucasus region.
TRIPP and the Geopolitics of the South Caucasus
The South Caucasus remains a critical geopolitical crossroads between Europe, Asia, and the Middle East, shaped by territorial disputes, competing regional powers, and fragile security arrangements. In this context, TRIPP positions economic cooperation and trade connectivity as tools for conflict de-escalation and regional stabilization.
Among the regional actors, Armenia occupies a uniquely strategic yet constrained position. Despite its geographic importance, Armenian foreign policy has long been affected by border closures, limited regional integration, and economic isolation, particularly following decades of conflict with Azerbaijan and strained relations with Turkey.
Armenia’s Strategic Role in Eurasian Trade Corridors
Within the TRIPP framework, Armenia is envisioned as a potential transit hub for Eurasian trade corridors, linking European markets with Central Asia and the Middle East. The development or restoration of transport, energy, and logistics infrastructure across the Caucasus would allow Armenia to integrate into international trade routes that have historically bypassed the country.
Such integration would:
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reduce Armenia’s dependence on a limited number of strategic partners
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increase economic resilience and diversification
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enhance national sovereignty through improved connectivity
From a geopolitical perspective, participation in regional trade corridors strengthens Armenia’s strategic relevance while aligning economic incentives with long-term stability.
Economic Integration as a Tool for Regional Peace
A core assumption of TRIPP is that economic interdependence can promote peace. The project is closely tied to the normalization of Armenia–Azerbaijan relations and the gradual reopening of Turkey–Armenia borders, two pillars of long-term security in the South Caucasus.
By prioritizing shared economic interests over military confrontation, TRIPP reflects a broader strategy of peace through trade, positioning Armenia not only as a beneficiary but as a key stakeholder in regional conflict resolution.
Economic and Strategic Benefits for Armenia
If implemented, TRIPP could generate tangible outcomes for Armenia, including:
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increased foreign direct investment (FDI)
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modernization of transport and energy infrastructure
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job creation and economic growth
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improved diplomatic positioning within international forums
Strategically, Armenia’s inclusion in a high-profile international initiative would enhance its credibility as a reliable geopolitical partner, reducing political isolation and expanding diplomatic options beyond traditional alliances.
Geopolitical Risks and Structural Challenges
Despite its potential, TRIPP faces significant geopolitical risks in Armenia. Persistent regional tensions, unresolved security issues, and domestic political resistance to compromise remain substantial barriers. Moreover, without credible multilateral guarantees and sustained international engagement, the initiative risks remaining a theoretical framework rather than a functional geopolitical project.
Conclusion: Armenia, Trade Connectivity, and Long-Term Stability
In its Armenia-focused dimension, TRIPP represents an effort to use economic integration, trade connectivity, and infrastructure diplomacy as mechanisms for peace in the South Caucasus. Its strategic importance lies in offering Armenia an active role in Eurasian trade networks, transforming commerce into a long-term instrument of geopolitical stability and shared prosperity.
As regional dynamics evolve in 2025–2026, Armenia’s ability to leverage such initiatives will play a crucial role in redefining its position within the broader architecture of Caucasus geopolitics.
Carlo Coppola
Keywords principali
South Caucasus geopolitics, Armenia foreign policy, regional peace initiatives, trade corridors Eurasia, economic integration and peace, Azerbaijan Armenia relations, Turkey Armenia normalization, international trade routes, geopolitical stability Caucasus.
